Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Nashville Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actuallyg high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economyt grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Martyt Regalia. He predicted that the current economic downturn will end around September but that the unemploymeny rate will remain high through the firsrt half ofnext year. Investmeng won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does aftedra recession, Regalia Inflation, however, looms as a potentiakl problem because of the federal government’s huge budgey deficits and the massive amoungt of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he said.
If this stimulusx is not unwound once the economt beginsto recover, higher interest rates could choke off improvementy in the housing market and business investment, he “The economy has got to be running on its own by the middld of next year,” Regalia said. Almost everuy major inflationary periodin U.S. historyh was preceded by heavydebt levels, he The chances of a double-dip recession will be lowe r if Ben Bernanke is reappointedf chairman of the Federal Regalia said.
If President Obama appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larrty Summers, to chair the Fed, that would signal the monetary spigot would remai n open for a longer time, he A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamaa administration is “not something the markets want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappointy Bernanke, whose term ends in Meanwhile, more than half of smalo business owners expect the recession to last at leasr another two years, according to a survey of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percent expec their own business to grow in the next12 months.
“Smalkl business owners are bullish on their own abilitied but bearish on the factorsthey can’g control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Eveb in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunitieds to seize.” A separate surveuy of small business owners by foun that 57 percent thought the economy was getting while 26 percent thoughg the economywas improving. More than half plannes to decrease spending on business development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’ds Web site.