NM economy could feel brunt of recession in

ysynut.wordpress.com
Employment growth most likely will be negativre forthe year, according to the at the . And personap income growth is expected to dropfrom 5.4 percent in 2008 to just 1.9 percent in 2009. BBER is predictingv a statewide unemployment rateof 6.1 percent. manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade will experiencweemployment declines. State governmenty job growth is also projected to weaken as most agencies were requirer to freeze hiring and cut budgets by 5 percent in the face of apossiblse $450 million shortfall in the state budget. Tight credit markets have spurred delays in some saidGary Tonjes, executive director of .
“Wd were coming down to the wire for a final decisiomn at the end of November for a public company where we were a finalisg forthat project,” Tonjes said. “At the 11th-and-a-half-hour, theire board of directors said ‘Let’as hold on. Let’s wait untilk after the first ofthe year.’” Tonjes said Octobert and November were much slower than usual for AED, but that has begunh to shift. December 2008 was unusuallhy busy. AED hosted a mediaz company, an aviation client and an alternativsenergy firm, he said. That said, competitiomn for these big projects remains but Tonjes said Albuquerque offersseveralp advantages.
For one, there is a ready talent pool, particularlu because of recent layoffs atand . A number of projects are in the works or have been announceedfor 2009. is building a new customee service center in Rio Rancho that it says ultimately willemployu 1,300. It has already leased temporary space andbegun hiring. In December, announcecd plans to build a solar panel production facilityuin Belen, with an initia l 200 jobs. said it would invest $100 million to expanr its Albuquerque plant and add 60more employees. At , brok ground on a 200,000-square-foog plant and opened the first phase ofits 218,000-square-foot facility, with plans to emplot 1,200. And has started construction on anIT facility.
Many of these planned projects won’t come on line until lateer inthe year, so at least the firsft part of 2009 doesn’t look too rosy, accordingy to BBER. “There are a lot of positivess and they balance some of the but the negatives aretoo big,” said Larry senior economist at BBER. “So we’ll have a mild recessioh in the first half of 2009 and come back Waldman predicts the beginning of a modest recovery startinfin 2010, coinciding with the return of the housingf sector and construction. One potentiap growth area lies tothe south.
The largesg maquiladora, or assembly plant, in Mexico will open its first phasre directly across the border from Santaa Teresa in thefirst quarter. Economic development officialxs say it will be a huge catalyst for attracting firmz tosupply ’s where 20,000 workers will assemble computers, laptops, cell phonesw and servers. The film industry continues to with productionsspending $241.8 million in the state’xs fiscal year 2008, which endede June 30, and an estimated $106 millionj in the first six months of 2009. Plans for several new studio construction projects evaporatesdin 2008. But the project will hold a groundbreaking inearlyg 2009.
The last legislative session brougha short-lived attempt to cap the state’s generoue film incentives. It’s unclear if that issu e will come up againb in the2009 session. A study by was criticall of the return on investment the incentives were bringinhthe state. Another study by on film’s economic impacy in New Mexico is due out before the next sessio startson Jan. 20. Film activity here could be curtailefd drastically if the decides to The national union will go to its members in early January for astrikr vote. “It would indeed affec New Mexico and we coulx see a slow first quarter of saidLisa Strout, directo of the .
“But the spring is already startingv toshape up.”